It is true that human beings, like wild animals, are practically unpredictable. Psychologists can only predict behaviour if certain fundamental human attributes change. No one is certain, or can confirm for sure, what will happen if a person’s motive or extreme desire is challenged or obstructed.
There are those who would simply ignore the outcome of an impediment to their motive, while others would kill or get killed in the process of actualizing a lust for something. In any case, everyone’s reaction to a given situation differs, and this is the core reason human beings are unpredictable.
A political party is an organization, which seeks to achieve goals common to its members through the acquisition and exercise of political power. Many political parties have an ideological core, but some do not, and many represent ideologies very different from what they did when first founded. In democracies, political parties are elected to run a government by the electorate.
Looking at the current political environment in Nigeria, it is becoming harder to understand the motive of some politicians in the game. Some members of the two front-running political parties, All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are people of like mind. Only a few members of the APC, mostly those from the former CPC like General Buhari, and a few others from the PDP who migrated to the APC of late, still maintain ideology far from PDP’s “grab-it-all policy”.
When Femi Fani-Kayode, a former minister of aviation under the PDP government, inserted himself as a member of the APC, some Nigerians thought for a while that the APC would transform into a political party of like mind — a new frontier of people with rational mindset that will change the status quo. But, quite frankly, Fani-Kayode does not fit the symbol of a reformer. His romance with the APC was a survival tactic, an avenue to get protection and sympathy. Once an arrangement was in place to forego all criminal charges against him (whether these charges were real or imagined), the former minister, again, changed his political party.
Fani-Kayode now speaks from the other side of his mouth. The president, Jonathan Goodluck, has instantly become his hero. The APC, his former place of abode, has become “almajiri people’s congress”, sponsors of Boko Haram; and all the members of his former party have become subversive elements whose taste for power is to disrupt the peace and unity of Nigeria.
Fani-Kayode’s erratic behaviour is common on all fronts of Nigeria’s political landscape. Those who cannot find their bearing in one party quickly run back to declare for another party, where, if possible, they can achieve some form of relevance and acceptance.
Buba Marwa, a former military governor of Lagos State, left the PDP for the APC, and, on sighting tidal waves ahead, has quickly gone back to the PDP.
Some of us find it hard to understand the former vice president of Nigeria, Abubakar Atiku, who was a founding father of the PDP. While still in the PDP government, Atiku formed the Action Congress party of Nigeria (ACN), dumped ACN for PDP again, and has now moved to APC.
My overall assessment of our politicians, except a few, is that they are of low integrity. The few APC members with integrity like Kwankwaso, Wamakko, Rotimi Amaechi and General Buhari have maintained their stand, even while being subjected to possible persecution in the near future.
The news is all over the airwaves that Modu Ali Sheriff will declare for the PDP after the fasting season. He has lost out in the APC, and very few members of the party find him trustworthy enough not to sell out to the PDP.
One thing is certain about the PDP: they are people of varied background with immense appetite for vanity, bonded together in what I term “fine mess”. Nigeria will only continue in a downward-spiral-spin socially and economically as long as only one party remains in charge of Nigeria’s affairs. Nothing positive will happen to us and the escalating level of corruption and insecurity will increase in velocity.
The question now is: who can deliver Nigeria from the claws of these titans?
The merger of the ACN, ANPP and CPC to form APC, for a short while, brought a sense of hope to Nigerians. A vibrant opposition will ensure creative tension for good governance. But with the majority of the members of APC as moles for PDP, what joker card can the APC play to retain Lagos, Osun, Borno and the other states?
When the former APC heavyweights like Bafarawa and Shekarau left the party for refuge in the PDP, it became obvious that party politics in Nigeria is simply based on survival of the fittest — no principle or ideology matters.
It has become crystal clear that the very few principled leaders of the opposition party will definitely not survive the PDP’s planned assault on the remaining states currently under the APC governors.
Murtala Nyako would have remained in office if he had pledged allegiance to the PDP without changing to the APC. Governor Al-Makura may not survive possible impeachment, except if some divine intervention comes to play.
The biggest problem I see with the APC is that the CPC has sold out its core integrity. After being rigged out of the last elections, the party would have remained defiant in its pursuit of good governance, without diluting its principles. Merging with Bola Tinubu’s party has changed the fundamental ideology of the CPC. Tinubu is not as decent as General Buhari, and the two have very little in common. This marriage will hurt the APC more than we envisage.
The PDP is the party in government; it will do everything, legal or illegal, to remain in power, even if all Nigerians say no to the continuity of the current administration.
No one cares about dignity, integrity and justice in Nigeria anymore; those values have long been thrown into the garbage. For now, Nigerians will keep swallowing the bitter pills until God, in his infinite mercy, gives us respite.
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