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| Akin Adeoya |
By 2015 he will be 73, he would have made four consecutive attempts at power between 1999 and 2015 and he would be tired, frustrated and in no mood for another bestial tangle in the electoral minefield that precedes the coronation of Nigeria’s president. But before then, he would have to win the APC nomination where he will be contending against formidable foes, the most prominent of which is Alhaji Abubarka Atiku.
If he wins the APC primaries, he will be facing the formidable task of upsetting the intricately laid plans of the incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan to hang on to power. Given the trend in this country, where an incumbent has never been voted out of Aso Rock, this is by no means an easy task. President Jonathan is leaving nothing to chance in his bid to stay on, he is not assuming, he is throwing everything in the fray and unloading vast resources to cover his bet. Hundreds of pro-Jonathan groups are springing up by the day, many of them no doubt inspired by the smell of raw cash from the money fountain called Aso Rock.
The President has already made deep in roads into some regions and achieved a virtual lock down. Virtually all the governors in the South East for instance, except the egregious governor of Imo state, Owelle Rochas Okorocha, have queued up behind him. Historically this tendency has led to his winning approximately 97% in many south eartern states. Ex-Governor Peter Obi, the last man standing in the beleaguered APGA has thrown in the towel and embraced the Jonathan tsunami. In Ondo, hard fighting Governor Mimiko of the labor party has made a deft cross over move to the PDP, his former abode, after winning two consecutive governorship bids under the aegis of the labor party. In Ekiti, the PDP exploited every possible electoral strategy to win what has become the most astounding victory against APCs Governor Kayode Fayemi. This changes the political coloration of the state from Pro APC to Pro PDP. All these moves would appear to be part of an overall effort to build a solid political base for the upcoming presidential elections by ensuring that PDP is firmly on ground in all these strategic states.
While the APC is yet to conduct primaries, President Jonathan and his party have gone on full scale offensive in a bid to reap the votes. Defeating the incumbent will not be a tea party. But a party with a clear cut message, couched in a language that resonates with the people and condensed into a few powerful sentences drummed to distraction can achieve the traction needed to cause an upset.
Have you read the APC manifesto? Just like the PDP document, it is couched like a policy document for academics rather than a document for millions of people to read, digest and decide. There is no call to action, and it does not specifically identify some of the most critical issues of the day or point to specific actions to deal with them. Agreed, a manifesto should be a timeless document that sets down fundamental principles of an organization, my opinion however is that the Nigerian story is at such a critical junction that the manifesto of a party bidding for power, in order to engage and attract must talk about the greatest challenges of the time.
I want to propose the five most important promises that a General Buhari candidacy can use to drive a campaign and why they will resonate with the people and cause a possible upset, all other things been equal.
THE WAR AGAINST INSURGENCY:
What does a General
do? He goes to war. Fortunately we are at war. And the war is on five fundamental levels. GMB’s backers must fall back to his military antecedents and employ the metaphor of war to drive home the point. They must draw the fundamental line separating a President Jonathan and why he is unable to put a concluding touch to the Boko Haram and other menaces troubling our nation. It is very important they show that the inability to win the war against the insurgency is not President Jonathan’s fault, it’s because he does not have the training, orientation and leadership sagacity to rout them. They must argue that for these same reasons, he has not been able to command the absolute loyalty of the military. Wrap up the argument with the obvious: General Buhari is, in contrast, a soldier’s soldier, a war veteran, a tough no nonsense General. Then propose how long it will take the General to end the insurgency. What is important here is the need to show the clear differences between the two. Of course, be assured of a robust reply from the President’s camp. However, as long as our main arguments are based on pure facts, just keep on driving the same points till its truth begins to achieve converts.
THE WAR AGAINST CORRUPTION
The war against corruption will not be won with kids gloves. The reality, according to an old Russian saying, is that you cannot make omelets without breaking eggs. We need a tough General, with a reputation for discipline and iron will to help us clean this Augean stable called Nigeria. Here, a clear cut positioning must be engineered for the incumbent, to position his as a child of the system and therefore incapable of attacking the establishment. Since Nigeria cannot survive another four years of corruption on this unimaginable scale, it is time to bring in the General. Halting the corruption train, or even slowing it down will have a massively positive impact on virtually every aspect of life, Nigeria needs a leader who can tackle it without fear or favor.
WAR AGAINST DARKNESS
metaphorical point of view, the most pervasive of the ills of the country, the situation that most dramatizes our collective failure, is the virtual darkness that covers the entire nation. GMB’s handlers must carefully articulate the historical fact that it was GEJ and his former boss(President Yar’ Adua) who truncated the Obasanjo power projects. Their halfhearted attempts to revamp it have yielded little or no improvements at the consumer end. To win this war, we need a general who understands how to use power in aid of economic development rather than self-aggrandizement. They must explain that only a Buhari, for now, has the capacity, will and boldness to push through the power reforms and help Nigeria generate the power it needs for development. Resolving the power problem will have fundamental effects on crime reduction, unemployment and productivity. It will help put our nation back on the path of rapid development.
WAR AGAINST CRIME
The war against crime requires cunning, strategy, intelligence and discipline. Who combines all these capacities better than a GMB? His handlers must demonstrate that these qualities are a challenge for President Jonathan. Yes, he sure does have cunning, but certainly it can be argued that his skills in the other areas are suspect. He has been very obvious in most of his moves, with even casual observers able to predict his next move on almost every issue. It is clear for instance that the war of insurgency has not enjoyed the advantage of intelligence gathering. Crime resolution in Nigeria has little to do with intelligence and investigation but with crude tactics that have long been discarded in more developed climes. General Buhari has the background, composure and capacity to deliver.
WAR AGAINST ILLITERACY AND UNEMPLOYMENT
In my estimation, these are Siamese twins. Solve the problem of half-baked graduates, school leavers without any acquired skills, poorly orientated graduates in their millions lacking work ethics and you have solved 50% of unemployment in Nigeria.
Nigeria is bustling with opportunities for the ready-to-perform. The big problem is not so much as lack of opportunities, but lack of capacity. Many businesses and industries are collapsing simply because they cannot find manpower to man them. The entire construction industry, at the artisan end(With potential to employ millions) has slipped out of the hands of Nigerians because of poor work ethics and attention to detail. The problem can be solved if we overhaul and repackage our educational system. That is more urgent that trying to create jobs without arming these young ones with the skills to execute them. However, this war requires mastery of grand strategy. The Nigerian educational industry has become a huge bazaar. There are powerful entrenched interests everywhere. Again, we need a General to analyze the field and give us a direction.
Conclusion
To succeed, political parties and candidates who truly want to win elections by communicating and winning votes must be able to condense their manifestos to concise documents that every street arab can understand and digest. To register, you need to deploy metaphors and imageries. To drive home the point you need to be repetitive, to continue to repeat certain words and phrases until they become a song. Complexity is anathema. Narrow down to a few matters which are of the gravest concern to the electorate and make an endless display of your answers. Cap everything by narrowing down to a word or phrase that you can own in the prospects mind (Ries and Trout in Positioning, The battle for your mind) and campaign that to the ends of the earth. Finally, it’s great when you keep positioning yourself against a strong opposition. Never appear weak in comparison, even if you are, as, according to Robert Greene, “Everybody sympathizes with the underdog, but the world follows the top dog”. (The 48 laws of Power) By endlessly positioning yourself against a formidable opposition, you draw from its strength; people begin to see you as being, at worst at par, or even better.
Your comparisons will always favor you! They will fight back, but that will always be in reaction. Ensure you lead in the attack, always lead in the attack.
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