By Wale Adedayo
The loss of Ekiti State by the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the hitherto opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) should be a sober lesson for key leaders of the APC, who often disregard popular will in support of favoured political office holders or persons who they perceive as “our own”, but who have no genuine connection with the grassroots.
It is possible some APC leaders will still cry foul about perceived rigging and acts bordering on illegalities towards the Ekiti State election. Fine. For some of us, we will agree with that to a certain extent. It was wrong for the PDP-controlled Federal Government to use soldiers to harrass and intimidate key leaders of APC in Ekiti State, who had to go into hiding for fear of being arrested.
Supporters of such leaders, will of course, be afraid. It is either they refuse to go and vote – as the number of accredited voters was abysmally low in a number of places, compared with registered voters. Some of those who eventually go out to vote in such places may also be intimidated into voting for a candidate that would not have been their choice if the threat of physical intervention by the military had not been there.
At some point, the same soldiers who were going after APC leaders, were shown driving the Governor-elect, Ayodele Fayose, around town – a situation that sends very powerful signal to residents/voters about where the official resources of violence support. No doubt, intimidation was heavily used against the APC. But for me, it was not enough for APC’s Dr. Kayode Fayemi to have lost with the kind of margin announced as the result of the election.
Yes, intimidation using official or unofficial instruments of violence is rigging. But it is an established maxim in Third World democracies that “you cannot rig, where you are not popular.” It is my belief, which one is entitled to, that the out-going governor lost out in the court of public opinion despite the many projects he did in that state. He did not take public opinion into account in a democratic setting where it is the mass of the people who decides whether you return to office or not, not how gentlemanly or courteous you are.
Fayose on the other hand has a knack for tapping into popular sentiments, thus was assured of positive public opinion among the masses, who form majority of the electorates. Were the masses to be on the side of Fayemi, violelnce would have broken out either one day or two days to the election given the manner soldiers were being used to harrass APC leaders. That is Ekiti State. They would not have taken kindly to it. But signals from the state clearly revealed they were not seriously bothered.
But why would a performing governor have a negative perception among his own people? Why would a PhD holder, who is also a sitting governor, like President Goodluck Jonathan, be soundly beaten by a man, who cannot be said to be his mate academically and socially? What went wrong with the administration of a prodemocracy icon, who lived a better part of his life abroad, thus should understand good governance better?
To understand these questions, we may need to do a year-long study using the services of appropriate Political Consultants. But from the little I know, Fayemi shot himself in the foot with the unnecessary war he declared against fellow Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) members shortly after becoming governor, all in a bid to control the Ekiti State party structure. It was as a result of this that Hon. Opeyemi Bamidele left the party to join Labour Party long before APC, which Fayemi controlled 100%, came on the scene.
Maximum damage to APC/Fayemi’s political reputation was inflicted by a key stakeholder, Bamidele, along with his loyalists. This reinforced the belief among many that Fayemi, thus, APC are not to be TRUSTED given the same treatment metted out to Fayose, who assisted in bring Fayemi to office. APC lost the trust of Ekiti people, through a governor, who did not take the feelings of the masses into consideration while the good days lasted.
Certainly Bamidele is a featherweight, politically. An addition of his votes to that of Fayemi would not have changed Fayose’s decisive victory. But the damage Bamidele inflicted on APC/Fayemi by tactically destroying the reputation of both was a maximum gain for the PDP, whose candidate has always been a grassroots mobiliser. Perhaps, if Fayemi had managed the ACN crisis properly at the time, he would have been availed the services of Fayose-like elements, who were also many in the party at the time. Bamidele assisted PDP/Fayose with negative Public Opinion against Fayemi.
The same scenario is currently playing out in Ogun State, where the PDP and Labour Party are waxing stronger by the day despite the projects being done by the Governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun. Public opinion among the elites favour the APC and Amosun in many centres. But it is a different story among the lower classes, who constitute at least 70% of the voting population. The urge to control the APC structure in Ogun State has divided the party and currently giving undue advantage to the opposition, who appear set to rid Oke Mosan of Amosun come 2015.
At the end, in Ekiti State, Public Opinion came out tops against Finance/Funds (mostly from being an incubent) and Party Organisation. Whose opinion, anyway? Opinion of persons living outside the state or of those who live in Ekiti State and feel the impact (negative or positive) of government action(s) on a daily basis? The elites are important. But as followers of the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, politicians, who claim a progressive pedigree, MUST know that serving the needs of the masses is more important than pandering to the whims and caprices of the elites in a country, where the Centre can move against you with its might.
Projects serving the needs of the elites alone cannot win a credible re-election for any governor, who naively dances to their praises and expect electoral gains. Awolowo targetted the masses, primarily, with Education and Healthcare services. But a subtantial section of the elites were opposed to him. As it was at the time, and even till now, the elites form a neglible portion of the populace despite their control of the formal media. It was the masses, who were, and are still in the majority, that Awolowo courted.
There was hardly a locality without a positive touch of Awo in terms of education and healthcare services during his time in government. Almost every home had his feel when it came to education. Of course, Agriculture and the Rural Areas were developed too. That was why a combination of the Centre – with all its might – and Yoruba elites could not bring the old man down.
This is a lesson APC leaders should learn given the scant attention being paid to crisis in some of its state chapters through support for persons, who have little or no grassroots backing. It is not enough to gather newspaper/magazine editors to write positive stories about a political leader. Those who read such stories hardly participate in elections. Even the stories hardly influence electoral outcomes.
And, as often pointed out, only the undiscerning in Political Communication devote all attention to the formal media (newspapers, radio, TV and magazines) when it comes to moulding/engineering Public Opinion. Those well-versed in the art know what to tap into, when the need arises to do so. The ‘anger of most Ekiti people’ against APC/Fayemi as shown by the results of the election is certain proof, again, that in ANY democratic contest, Public Opinion is King!
The loss of Ekiti State by the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the hitherto opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) should be a sober lesson for key leaders of the APC, who often disregard popular will in support of favoured political office holders or persons who they perceive as “our own”, but who have no genuine connection with the grassroots.
It is possible some APC leaders will still cry foul about perceived rigging and acts bordering on illegalities towards the Ekiti State election. Fine. For some of us, we will agree with that to a certain extent. It was wrong for the PDP-controlled Federal Government to use soldiers to harrass and intimidate key leaders of APC in Ekiti State, who had to go into hiding for fear of being arrested.
Supporters of such leaders, will of course, be afraid. It is either they refuse to go and vote – as the number of accredited voters was abysmally low in a number of places, compared with registered voters. Some of those who eventually go out to vote in such places may also be intimidated into voting for a candidate that would not have been their choice if the threat of physical intervention by the military had not been there.
At some point, the same soldiers who were going after APC leaders, were shown driving the Governor-elect, Ayodele Fayose, around town – a situation that sends very powerful signal to residents/voters about where the official resources of violence support. No doubt, intimidation was heavily used against the APC. But for me, it was not enough for APC’s Dr. Kayode Fayemi to have lost with the kind of margin announced as the result of the election.
Yes, intimidation using official or unofficial instruments of violence is rigging. But it is an established maxim in Third World democracies that “you cannot rig, where you are not popular.” It is my belief, which one is entitled to, that the out-going governor lost out in the court of public opinion despite the many projects he did in that state. He did not take public opinion into account in a democratic setting where it is the mass of the people who decides whether you return to office or not, not how gentlemanly or courteous you are.
Fayose on the other hand has a knack for tapping into popular sentiments, thus was assured of positive public opinion among the masses, who form majority of the electorates. Were the masses to be on the side of Fayemi, violelnce would have broken out either one day or two days to the election given the manner soldiers were being used to harrass APC leaders. That is Ekiti State. They would not have taken kindly to it. But signals from the state clearly revealed they were not seriously bothered.
But why would a performing governor have a negative perception among his own people? Why would a PhD holder, who is also a sitting governor, like President Goodluck Jonathan, be soundly beaten by a man, who cannot be said to be his mate academically and socially? What went wrong with the administration of a prodemocracy icon, who lived a better part of his life abroad, thus should understand good governance better?
To understand these questions, we may need to do a year-long study using the services of appropriate Political Consultants. But from the little I know, Fayemi shot himself in the foot with the unnecessary war he declared against fellow Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) members shortly after becoming governor, all in a bid to control the Ekiti State party structure. It was as a result of this that Hon. Opeyemi Bamidele left the party to join Labour Party long before APC, which Fayemi controlled 100%, came on the scene.
Maximum damage to APC/Fayemi’s political reputation was inflicted by a key stakeholder, Bamidele, along with his loyalists. This reinforced the belief among many that Fayemi, thus, APC are not to be TRUSTED given the same treatment metted out to Fayose, who assisted in bring Fayemi to office. APC lost the trust of Ekiti people, through a governor, who did not take the feelings of the masses into consideration while the good days lasted.
Certainly Bamidele is a featherweight, politically. An addition of his votes to that of Fayemi would not have changed Fayose’s decisive victory. But the damage Bamidele inflicted on APC/Fayemi by tactically destroying the reputation of both was a maximum gain for the PDP, whose candidate has always been a grassroots mobiliser. Perhaps, if Fayemi had managed the ACN crisis properly at the time, he would have been availed the services of Fayose-like elements, who were also many in the party at the time. Bamidele assisted PDP/Fayose with negative Public Opinion against Fayemi.
The same scenario is currently playing out in Ogun State, where the PDP and Labour Party are waxing stronger by the day despite the projects being done by the Governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun. Public opinion among the elites favour the APC and Amosun in many centres. But it is a different story among the lower classes, who constitute at least 70% of the voting population. The urge to control the APC structure in Ogun State has divided the party and currently giving undue advantage to the opposition, who appear set to rid Oke Mosan of Amosun come 2015.
At the end, in Ekiti State, Public Opinion came out tops against Finance/Funds (mostly from being an incubent) and Party Organisation. Whose opinion, anyway? Opinion of persons living outside the state or of those who live in Ekiti State and feel the impact (negative or positive) of government action(s) on a daily basis? The elites are important. But as followers of the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, politicians, who claim a progressive pedigree, MUST know that serving the needs of the masses is more important than pandering to the whims and caprices of the elites in a country, where the Centre can move against you with its might.
Projects serving the needs of the elites alone cannot win a credible re-election for any governor, who naively dances to their praises and expect electoral gains. Awolowo targetted the masses, primarily, with Education and Healthcare services. But a subtantial section of the elites were opposed to him. As it was at the time, and even till now, the elites form a neglible portion of the populace despite their control of the formal media. It was the masses, who were, and are still in the majority, that Awolowo courted.
There was hardly a locality without a positive touch of Awo in terms of education and healthcare services during his time in government. Almost every home had his feel when it came to education. Of course, Agriculture and the Rural Areas were developed too. That was why a combination of the Centre – with all its might – and Yoruba elites could not bring the old man down.
This is a lesson APC leaders should learn given the scant attention being paid to crisis in some of its state chapters through support for persons, who have little or no grassroots backing. It is not enough to gather newspaper/magazine editors to write positive stories about a political leader. Those who read such stories hardly participate in elections. Even the stories hardly influence electoral outcomes.
And, as often pointed out, only the undiscerning in Political Communication devote all attention to the formal media (newspapers, radio, TV and magazines) when it comes to moulding/engineering Public Opinion. Those well-versed in the art know what to tap into, when the need arises to do so. The ‘anger of most Ekiti people’ against APC/Fayemi as shown by the results of the election is certain proof, again, that in ANY democratic contest, Public Opinion is King!
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